Insider Brief
- Quantum computing is set to be worth $1 trillion by 2035, offering geopolitical and economic security to its leaders – and worrying consequences for those who fall behind.
- UK can lead global quantum computing race but is falling behind countries like Germany, Canada and the Netherlands in deployment.
- Recommendations include tax breaks for firms investing in UK quantum, investing in enabling infrastructure, strategic cooperation with allies, and starting the transition to quantum-ready encryption immediately.
PRESS RELEASE — ‘History won’t forgive us’ if the UK fumbles the chance to lead in the quantum computing race, Tony Blair and Lord Hague argue in a new report published today by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
A New National Purpose: A UK Quantum Strategy for Sovereignty and Scale, urges action to secure Britain’s success in the next tech revolution and its future security.
Once the preserve of scientists, quantum technologies are rapidly evolving into a commercial industry: from navigation without satellites to discovering new medicines and building ultra-powerful computers that could solve in seconds what takes years today.
Blair and Hague warn that the countries that lead in quantum will also lead the world, commanding both economic and geopolitical advantage. By contrast, those that lag behind will find themselves dependent on foreign technology for their security and prosperity.
In their joint foreword, Tony Blair and Lord Hague say: “Quantum represents the next key stage of the technology revolution. Quantum technologies will remove classical bottlenecks and expand the boundaries of possibility, while leaving late movers to the fates of technological dependence.
“As we have seen with AI, a strong research and development base is not enough: it is the countries that have the infrastructure and capital for scale that capture technology’s economic and strategic benefits. Quantum cannot be treated as a separate, niche policy area.
“The quantum era will arrive whether Britain leads it or not. But history will not forgive us if we fumble the chance to lead in a transformative technology. “
According to Oxford Economics, widespread quantum adoption could boost UK productivity by seven per cent and create more than 126,000 jobs by 2045. But failure to act could be disastrous, both economically and strategically.
The stakes, the authors warn, are high for national security. Within the next decade, advances in quantum computing are expected to render today’s encryption systems obsolete – an event known as ‘Q-Day.’ The first nation to achieve quantum advantage could decrypt global communications,
exposing governments, financial systems and critical infrastructure, with the paper cautioning that adversaries are already preparing for this.
The report finds that the UK’s home advantages in talent and startups are not translating into industrial scale. Britain is falling behind countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Canada in quantum deployment, leaving its ecosystem ‘strategically exposed.’
The Institute argues that success in quantum will depend on connecting world-class research and development with commercial deployment.
The report puts forward a number of recommendations to realise this, including offering tax relief to companies investing in early stage ‘deep tech’ such as quantum computing, and financial incentives such as National Insurance reductions for companies employing quantum specialists or adopting the tech. Doing so, it argues, would increase the quantum-preparedness of UK-based industry, enhance use-case research and development, and create a market for UK quantum companies.
To ensure Britain has access to quantum-age infrastructure, the authors also recommend close collaboration and strategic partnerships with our allies such as Japan, Germany and Canada. While the UK should invest in its sovereign capabilities and enabling infrastructure, alliances where others have strengths will be critical.
In preparation for ‘Q-Day’, TBI recommends that government require critical industries, including defence and communications, to regularly publish updates on how they’re adopting quantum-secure encryption.
The paper emphasises that quantum technologies are not a niche research pursuit but a cornerstone of the 21st-century economy and security — one that will underpin progress in other technologies like AI, biotechnology, and energy systems.
