Insider Brief
- The Netherlands risks losing its global lead in quantum technology unless it invests roughly €9–€10 billion to help domestic companies scale from research to industrial production.
- A lack of growth capital leaves Dutch quantum startups vulnerable to acquisition by better-funded foreign firms, particularly from the United States, even as national security rules restrict outside investment.
- Industry planners argue that targeted public funding could unlock private investment, anchor manufacturing at home, and position the Netherlands to capture value from a global quantum market expected to reach trillions of dollars.
- Photo by chris robert on Unsplash
The Netherlands risks losing its lead in quantum technology unless it invests nearly €10 billion — or about $11.8 billion U.S. — to help domestic companies scale, as U.S. firms accelerate acquisitions across the sector, according to a new analysis published by Het Financieele Dagblad, or the FD.
The warning centers on a growing mismatch between world-class Dutch quantum research and the limited capital available to turn laboratory advances into industrial production. Without new investment, the country’s start-ups could become takeover targets for better-funded foreign rivals, shifting critical knowledge and manufacturing capacity abroad.
The analysis, based on recommendations delivered to the Dutch cabinet by former ASML chief executive Peter Wennink and supported by industry planners, argues that quantum technology has entered a decisive industrial phase. The science remains strong, but the economic and strategic stakes are rising fast as global competitors pour billions into scaling hardware, software and manufacturing.
Quantum technology, which uses the physics of atoms and particles to perform calculations and transmit information in ways conventional computers cannot, is still at an early stage, the FD reports. Yet governments and companies increasingly view it as a strategic asset, with potential applications ranging from advanced materials and drug discovery to secure communications and logistics optimization.
A Narrowing Window to Scale
The central finding is that the Netherlands faces a bottleneck at the point where start-ups must move from small-batch prototypes to repeatable, industrial-scale production. That transition requires large facilities, specialized equipment and long investment horizons, none of which fit neatly with traditional venture capital timelines.
According to FD, the study estimates that €9.4 billion would be needed to build that next stage of capacity. The money would support manufacturing plants, shared infrastructure and talent development, creating what planners describe as a concentrated national hub for quantum activity. The proposal envisions a geographic cluster anchored in the Randstad, linking existing research centers with new industrial facilities.
According to the report, the risk of inaction is not abstract. Dutch quantum firms already operate in areas such as chip components, cryogenic systems, cabling and test equipment that are essential to building full quantum systems. These companies are competitive today but increasingly exposed as larger foreign firms seek to buy capabilities rather than build them from scratch.
U.S. companies are highlighted as the most immediate threat, not because of hostile intent but because of structural advantage. Several American quantum firms are publicly listed, giving them stock-based currency for acquisitions. Others benefit from deep government support and a larger domestic capital market willing to tolerate long development cycles.
The report also points to a policy tension created by new investment screening rules. Dutch law now subjects sensitive technologies, including quantum, to national security review when foreign investors seek stakes in domestic firms. The intent is to protect strategic assets, but the effect can be to limit funding options for start-ups that already struggle to raise large growth rounds.
The analysis indicates that restricting foreign investment without providing domestic alternatives risks trapping companies in a no-growth zone. Firms may be prevented from selling or partnering internationally while lacking the capital to expand at home. Over time, that could slow innovation and encourage talent to leave for jurisdictions with fewer constraints and deeper funding pools.
To address this, the study recommends pairing investment controls with proactive industrial policy. Rather than focusing solely on blocking deals, the government should help create conditions in which companies can grow independently and attract partners on Dutch terms.
Building a National Quantum Hub
At the center of the proposal is the idea of a national “Quantum Valley,” designed to make the Netherlands a visible and attractive base for global quantum activity. The concept builds on work by Quantum Delta NL, a public-private organization coordinating the country’s quantum ecosystem.
The plan emphasizes concentration over dispersion with hardware manufacturing already clustering around Delft, where several key suppliers operate. Expanding that base with large-scale fabrication facilities would allow Dutch firms to offer end-to-end capabilities, from design to production, for international customers.
Amsterdam is positioned as a software and algorithms hub, drawing on existing strengths in quantum computing and artificial intelligence research. Rotterdam’s business schools and Leiden’s biotech sector are cited as complementary assets, particularly as demand grows for computing power in life sciences and industrial optimization.
The analysis stresses visibility to compete globally. The Netherlands would need facilities that function as industrial landmarks, signaling long-term commitment and capacity. Shared infrastructure, such as chip fabrication lines accessible to multiple companies, is framed as especially important for lowering barriers to scale.
Public Money to Unlock Private Capital
While the headline figure approaches €10 billion, the study does not call for the government to fund the entire effort alone. Instead, it proposes a public contribution of roughly €2.7 billion to €3 billion over a decade, designed to crowd in private investment.
The funding levels reflect the high uncertainty and long timelines typical of quantum development. Early public funding would absorb some of the risk, making projects bankable for pension funds, industrial partners and institutional investors.
The potential payoff is large, according to the analysis. Global spending on quantum technologies is projected to reach between $1 trillion and $2 trillion within ten years, driven by both commercial adoption and government demand. Countries that host manufacturing and systems integration stand to capture disproportionate economic value, along with strategic leverage.
However, without coordinated investment, the Netherlands could remain a source of ideas and talent while value creation migrates elsewhere. Dutch quantum research is described as world-leading today, but leadership is portrayed as fragile in a field where industrial scale, not academic output, will determine winners. Research breakthroughs developed with public funds would underpin foreign industries, effectively subsidizing competitors.
The report concludes that the coming years represent a narrow window. As quantum technology shifts from experimental systems to early commercial deployment, decisions about where factories are built and supply chains formed will shape the industry for decades. For the Netherlands, the choice is whether to anchor that future domestically or watch it consolidate abroad.
