Insider Brief
- Google CEO Sundar Pichai and former Intel chief Pat Gelsinger have outlined notably optimistic timelines for quantum computing, suggesting the field may be approaching a commercial inflection point after years of laboratory-scale progress.
- Pichai compared quantum’s trajectory to AI’s breakout five years ago and pointed to Google’s recent claims of verifiable quantum advantage, while Gelsinger argued the technology could disrupt computing within two years and challenge the GPU’s dominance.
- Their differing forecasts underscore uncertainty around when quantum systems will mature, but both signal rising confidence as investment, performance demonstrations, and early industry use cases accelerate momentum across the quantum ecosystem.
Quantum computing is drawing confident predictions from two of the world’s most influential technology executives, signaling that the long-promised field may be approaching a pivotal moment that pushes it into mainstream relevance faster than many expected.
Google CEO Sundar Pichai and former Intel chief Pat Gelsinger — now a general partner at Playground Global and a senior leader at Gloo — offered strikingly optimistic timelines about quantum technology’s advance, with both suggesting that major progress could arrive in just a few years. Their comments, made in separate interviews and reported by The Economic Times of India and the Financial Times, point to a growing belief among top technology decision-makers that quantum may be nearing the sort of inflection point artificial intelligence hit in the late 2010s.
Google Sees Quantum Entering Its “AI Five Years Ago” Moment
Pichai told BBC Newsnight that quantum computing is beginning to resemble artificial intelligence at the start of its modern rise. He said the company’s internal work shows the field is “beginning to reach a critical stage,” according to The Economic Times of India, and he drew a direct comparison to how AI looked shortly before its rapid expansion.
“I would say quantum is where AI was five years ago. So, I think, in five years from now, we’ll be going through a very exciting phase in quantum,” he said.
Pichai also underscored Google’s growing investment in quantum computing as part of its long-term strategy.
“We have the state-of-the-art quantum computing efforts in the world…building quantum systems, I think, will help us better simulate and understand nature and unlock many benefits for society,” he said. According to The Economic Times of India, Pichai framed quantum as a tool for precisely modeling natural systems — a capability that could drive advances in materials research, energy development and new medicines. Those remarks came days after Google disclosed progress from its Willow quantum chip, a processor powered by an algorithm known as Quantum Echoes. Google reported in Nature on October 22 that Willow achieved what it called the world’s first verifiable quantum advantage. A 65-qubit processor performed a complex physics simulation 13,000 times faster than the Frontier supercomputer.
“A major step towards practical uses for quantum computing,” Pichai told the BBC. Google also released a follow-on paper on arXiv describing how Quantum Echoes could improve nuclear magnetic resonance, a staple tool for studying molecules, suggesting that quantum enhancements could extend beyond abstract demonstrations into real-world measurement techniques.
A Former Intel CEO Says Quantum Is Two Years Away
If Pichai’s timeline was optimistic, Gelsinger’s was even bolder. In comments reported by the Financial Times, he suggested that quantum computing could disrupt the computing industry far sooner than many analysts expect — and far sooner than top industry peers predict.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said it may take twenty years for quantum computing to become mainstream. Gelsinger’s response: two years.
According to the Financial Times, Gelsinger described quantum computing as part of a “holy trinity” of classical, AI and quantum computing, a mix he believes will define the next several decades of technological growth. The FT reported that he discussed the benefits of photonics-based quantum systems compared with today’s dominant superconducting designs, arguing that photonics could deliver major performance and scalability gains. He also suggested that a major quantum breakthrough could “trip” the current AI boom by redirecting attention and investment toward new forms of computation.
Gelsinger, who stepped down as Intel’s CEO earlier this year, now works across deep-tech startups through Playground Global, which backs frontier technologies including semiconductor manufacturing and quantum hardware. He also holds a senior role at Gloo, where part of the mission involves building safeguards into AI systems to support socially beneficial uses grounded in Christian teachings. The FT reported that Gelsinger donates more than half of his income and remains involved in about a dozen charities.
Despite his wide range of commitments, his outlook on quantum computing remains unambiguous. The FT quoted him saying that whoever is right about timelines, “we’re heading into the most thrilling decade or two for technologists.” But he is confident that today’s dominant chip architecture — the graphics processing unit — will begin to be displaced by the end of the decade, with quantum systems playing a role in that shift.
Competing Timelines, Shared Momentum
The sharp difference between Pichai’s five-year view and Gelsinger’s two-year forecast highlights the uncertainty around quantum’s path, but their shared enthusiasm reflects a broader trend. After years of laboratory-scale experiments, rising investment and increasingly public demonstrations are pushing quantum closer to commercial relevance.
Google’s claims of verifiable quantum advantage, if sustained, may set performance benchmarks that competitors will try to surpass. Venture firms such as Playground Global are placing early bets on quantum hardware companies like PsiQuantum, which is pursuing a photonics-based approach similar to what Gelsinger described.
While both of these tech luminaries are optimistic, it’s important to note that the next few years will likely test whether quantum computing can move from high-profile research papers into products that offer clear value. Companies in pharmaceuticals, logistics, aerospace and energyare already exploring early quantum tools for simulating molecules, optimizing networks and modeling complex systems.
