Insider Brief
- Quantum computing is advancing across hardware, software, and pilots, while simultaneously placing long-term pressure on the cryptographic foundations of today’s internet and digital infrastructure.
- Governments, standards bodies, and industry players are actively transitioning toward post-quantum cryptography to mitigate long-term risks such as “harvest now, decrypt later” across networking, finance, identity, legacy hardware, and blockchain systems.
- While timelines and outcomes remain uncertain, concrete migration efforts and early deployments indicate that quantum preparedness is shifting from theory to infrastructure planning.
Quantum computing has been advancing steadily, with consistent progress across hardware, software and early industry pilots. These developments could potentially influence areas like materials research, logistics, and complex simulation – showing that quantum is gradually moving into practical use.
But as the technology matures, it also brings structural challenges. Much of the internet still depends on cryptographic methods introduced in the 1970s, and quantum computing shifts the mathematical assumptions they were built on. For enterprises, cloud providers and governments, this is a long-term infrastructure consideration that requires planning.
Preparation is already underway. Standards organizations have finalized post-quantum cryptography, major technology companies have begun integrating quantum-safe options, and several national programs are supporting early adoption. The next phase of the internet will be driven by both sides of this transition — the new capabilities quantum enables and the modernization required to secure global communication.
The Internet’s Aging Defenses and the Quantum Pressure Point
The internet’s core security mechanisms were designed for a different era of computing. RSA and ECC – the algorithms protecting most encrypted traffic today are mathematical problems that classical computers cannot solve efficiently at scale. Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) and digital certificates form the trust layer that lets devices, websites, and services verify each other.
Quantum computing shifts the ground under all of this by undermining the mathematical assumptions modern cryptography is built on.
Shor’s algorithm is a quantum algorithm that can factor large numbers exponentially faster than classical methods, effectively breaking RSA-2048 and ECC-256 encryption in hours rather than billions of years. Grover’s algorithm is a quantum search algorithm that reduces symmetric encryption strength by half—turning AES-256 into effective AES-128 security—requiring organizations to double their symmetric key sizes for quantum resistance.
This threat directly intersects with business risk. Industries holding sensitive long-lived data — healthcare, finance, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals — face the highest exposure. Medical records, financial histories, satellite telemetry, and intellectual property often need to remain secure for decades. If these assets are harvested today and decrypted later, the damage is permanent.
Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) is a cybersecurity threat where attackers collect encrypted data today and store it until quantum computers become powerful enough to decrypt it retroactively. This attack vector poses the greatest risk to sensitive data with decades-long confidentiality requirements, including medical records, financial transactions, government communications, and intellectual property. While there is no public evidence of quantum-enabled decryption taking place currently, governments and security agencies have started to treat HNDL as a credible long-term risk for sensitive, long-lived data.
In response, governments and standards bodies have set transition plans:
- The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized three post-quantum cryptographic algorithms in August 2024: CRYSTALS-Kyber (for encryption), CRYSTALS-Dilithium (for digital signatures), and SPHINCS+ (for backup signatures). These algorithms are designed to resist attacks from both classical and quantum computers and form the foundation of global PQC migration standards.
- The NSA, through CNSA 2.0, has set explicit dates for when federal systems must phase out classical public-key crypto.
- The EU’s STL framework is pushing for a coordinated, cross-border shift to quantum-secure infrastructure.
- ETSI also announced the launch of its PQC standard to guarantee the protection of critical data and communications in the future.
This is the pressure point. The cryptographic foundations of today’s internet are approaching end-of-life and the security implications of quantum computing are becoming clearer. As a result, major security bodies have moved from general awareness to concrete planning and deadlines – even though timelines and technical limits remain uncertain.
Systemic Impacts Across the Digital Infrastructure & PQC – Global Adoption in Motion
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is a set of encryption algorithms that remain secure against attacks from both classical and quantum computers by using mathematical problems like lattice-based cryptography, hash-based signatures, and code-based encryption that quantum algorithms cannot efficiently solve.
As mentioned earlier – Most internet security depends on RSA/ECC and PKI – systems quantum algorithms can compromise in principle. That exposes VPNs, banking stacks, authentication tokens, email encryption, and long-lived hardware to HNDL risks.
The same cryptographic assumptions also underpin much of today’s blockchain and digital-asset infrastructure — a risk that’s increasingly discussed, and one we’ll return to shortly.
Even the standards bodies have set migration timelines, shifting the problem from if to when.
How Are Organizations Implementing Quantum-Resistant Security?
The threats are real, but so is the work happening behind the scenes. Across industries, teams are already building, testing and deploying quantum-safe defenses – Let’s take a quick tour of what’s actually moving in the world right now.
The companies mentioned throughout this piece represent a snapshot of current, publicly visible efforts, while much of the work toward quantum-secure infrastructure remains distributed across a broader ecosystem. It’s important to note that the post does not contain an exhaustive map of all organizations working on quantum-secure systems.
How Is Network Infrastructure Being Protected Against Quantum Threats?
Network traffic, including corporate VPN sessions, API communications, and archived session logs, relies on encryption methods that could be vulnerable to quantum computing. As quantum algorithms evolve, they threaten these established methods, which could expose sensitive data if not updated. However, companies are already working to secure this critical infrastructure.
Hybrid Post-Quantum Key Exchange — To stay ahead of quantum threats, Cloudflare, Akamai, and Chrome have started implementing hybrid systems. These systems combine traditional encryption methods with quantum-safe options, ensuring that even with future quantum advances, network traffic remains secure.
The work done by these companies shows that quantum-safe systems can work in real-world production environments, making it easier for businesses to adopt without a major overhaul. These early deployments provide a practical path forward for the industry as quantum computing continues to develop.
What Quantum-Safe Solutions Are Banks Implementing?
Banking data and hardware age slowly, but their crypto is still vulnerable to future quantum breaks. Transaction logs, settlement records, custody data often need to remain secure for decades and this sector is an easy target for HNDL attacks.
But the transition has already started. The early movers are shipping hardware, running pilots, and baking quantum-safe crypto into long-lifecycle systems. Most of the progress is coming from vendors and banks that operate the rails themselves, which is exactly where quantum-resistant upgrades matter the most.
In response to the growing quantum threat, the banking and finance sectors are taking significant steps to secure their systems:
Post-Quantum Hardware Upgrades
Vendors are integrating quantum-safe solutions into their hardware. Thales, for instance, has released Luna HSM v7.9, which includes support for post-quantum algorithms, while PQShield is delivering quantum-capable secure elements and firmware designed for long-lifecycle devices.
Enterprise Infrastructure Upgrades
On the enterprise level, IBM is paving the way with its quantum-ready mainframes, and has also published quantum-safe migration playbooks to guide banks through the transition. These efforts aim to prepare critical infrastructure for the challenges posed by quantum computing.
Real-World Banking Pilots
Several financial institutions are running pilot programs to test these quantum-safe solutions. For example, Banco Sabadell is working with Accenture and QuSecure on a PQC pilot to explore real-world applications of quantum-resistant technology. Similarly, Accenture is investing in the scaling of quantum-safe deployments through its partnership with QuSecure.
Industry-Wide Collaboration
Regulatory bodies and industry groups across the globe are also stepping in to facilitate the transition. Central banks and financial regulators in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. are actively issuing PQC migration advisories and supporting pilot programs, helping to ensure that the global financial system is prepared for the quantum era.
How Are Identity Systems Transitioning to Post-Quantum Cryptography?
For identity, the risk is simple – break the signatures, break the access and to tackle that – the ecosystem is focusing on moving early:
Hardware Tokens and Authentication Methods
Yubico has laid out a roadmap for post-quantum support. The company is actively testing hybrid post-quantum encryption schemes on YubiKey models, ensuring that its hardware tokens can handle the quantum future without compromising security.
Platform-Level Security Upgrades
On the software side, Microsoft is integrating quantum-safe cryptography into its operating systems. By updating Windows and core security libraries, the company is ensuring that its platform remains resilient in the face of quantum threats.
Similarly, AWS is enhancing its cloud infrastructure, offering quantum-safe options for certificate authorities and identity systems, allowing enterprises to test and prepare quantum-safe authentication flows inside production cloud environments.
Identity and Access Management (IAM) Solutions
As the backbone of authentication systems, IAM providers are also preparing for the quantum transition. For example, Ping Identity is publishing migration playbooks and guidelines to help organizations plan their shift to quantum-safe credentials and authentication flows. These efforts focus on ensuring that the transition doesn’t disrupt current systems and that user access remains secure.
Are Email Systems Vulnerable to Quantum Computing Attacks?
Email and messaging systems depend on digital signatures and public-key encryption to verify senders and protect content. Those public-key components use classical algorithms, which quantum computers could one day break. Even the mechanisms that prove who sent a message become weaker under quantum threats because their digital signatures are no longer secure.
But to tackle this – upgrades to email security are emerging. Some modern encrypted email providers are beginning to build hybrid PQC into their stacks – Tuta Mail has deployed a hybrid protocol called TutaCrypt, combining classical and post-quantum key encapsulation (Kyber) for end-to-end protection.
Beyond specific services, standards bodies and working groups are planning next-generation protocols – IETF has also drafts recommending how PQC can be adopted within TLS-based applications.
These developments show that while full email stack PQC is not universal yet, early hybrid deployments and evolving standards are preparing the ecosystem for broader adoption.
How Can Legacy Hardware Be Protected Against Quantum Threats?
Legacy devices in sectors such as finance, IoT, and manufacturing often rely on traditional cryptographic methods that could eventually be vulnerable to quantum computing once sufficiently robust, fault-tolerant systems are available. Their long lifecycles make upgrades or replacements challenging, creating potential long-term risks for secure operations in industries that require data protection over many years.
In the meantime – Several companies are already addressing these risks by providing quantum-safe upgrades for long-life devices, some examples include:
- Futurex is offering PQC-ready solutions for secure elements and hardware security modules (HSMs) designed to support cryptographic resilience over extended periods as quantum technologies evolve.
- PQShield’s focus is on making secure hardware and IP resistant to quantum attacks. PQShield is evaluating the side-channel vulnerabilities in post-quantum hardware to ensure that embedded systems remain secure in the long run.
- Microchip (NXP i.MX 94 family) – Their new industrial and automotive chips are being designed with quantum-resilience in mind. This ensures that critical devices powered by these chips will stay secure even as quantum computing develops.
Similarly – different industry groups and standards bodies are also collaborating to build quantum-safe infrastructure:
- The ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute) has initiated the QKD (Quantum Key Distribution) project to secure communication networks.
- On the other hand – organizations like IETF and ISO/IEC are developing new post-quantum encryption standards to protect long-lived embedded systems. These coordinated efforts aim to ensure that both communication and hardware infrastructures remain secure as quantum computing advances.
Quantum Computing and Cryptography
“What Will Happen to Crypto When Quantum Computing Arrives?”
The question of whether quantum computing will break cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains hotly debated. Experts differ on the timeline and mechanisms by which quantum may pose a threat to blockchain technology, and the exact impact is still uncertain.
Meanwhile, quantum-resistant solutions are already under development.
Can Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Encryption?
Quantum computers threaten cryptocurrency security by potentially breaking the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most blockchain networks. A quantum computer with approximately 4,000 logical qubits could break Bitcoin’s ECDSA-256 signatures, exposing private keys and enabling unauthorized transactions – though current quantum systems remain far below this threshold with fewer than 1,000 physical qubits and high error rates. Quantum computers have the potential to solve ECC-based problems exponentially faster than classical computers, rendering current security measures ineffective.
However, as Dr. Michele Mosca from the University of Waterloo points out, “There’s a 1-in-7 chance public-key cryptography could be broken by 2026.” This highlights a growing urgency to address potential vulnerabilities, but the timeline is still uncertain.
Others, like Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, argue that quantum computing is still decades away from posing any real threat. He believes the short-term risks are negligible: “I think the risks are short term NIL. This whole thing is decades away, it’s ridiculously early and they have massive R&D issues in every vector of the required applied physics research to even find out if it’s possible at a useful scale. but it’s ok to be quantum ready” Back said.
What Quantum-Resistant Cryptocurrencies Exist Today?
Despite these differing opinions, progress is being made. Several quantum-resistant cryptocurrencies and solutions are already in development, aiming to future-proof blockchain technologies against potential quantum threats.
Following are some of the notable developments:
- Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) was designed from the ground up to be quantum-resistant, utilizing XMSS hash-based signatures instead of ECC. This approach makes QRL immune to the anticipated risks posed by quantum computing.
- Algorand adopts a hybrid model, where traditional classical signatures (Ed25519) work alongside quantum-resistant signatures like FALCON, ensuring blockchain data remains protected against quantum-level threats.
- SEALSQ, in partnership with WISeKey, is developing quantum-resistant hardware such as the QS7001 Secure Chip. This chip integrates post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithms to safeguard cryptocurrency wallets and transactions, with an expected release date in late 2025.
And just a side note that – this isn’t a comprehensive list, and many others are also actively working on similar solutions.
What Industries Will Benefit Most from Quantum Computing?
While quantum computing holds immense potential to optimize logistics, finance, and pharmaceutical industries, it’s important to note that we are still in the early stages of its practical application. Here’s where things stand:
Logistics and Supply Chain Optimization
Quantum computing could help solve complex problems like better route planning and inventory management which are beyond classical computing’s reach. Volkswagen, in partnership with D-Wave, has already tested quantum algorithms for optimizing city traffic. However, applying these solutions on a larger scale is still a challenge.
Finance Sector
In finance, quantum computing could potentially improve how we manage investment portfolios and assess risk. JPMorgan, working with AWS, is experimenting with quantum algorithms to improve large-scale financial modeling. But turning these experiments into everyday tools for banks is still a long way off.
Pharmaceutical Sector
Quantum computing could also speed up the process of discovering new drugs by simulating molecules more efficiently. IBM and the University of Tokyo are working together to explore this, but it will take years before quantum computing can be fully applied to drug discovery.
Quantum AI
Quantum computing also has the potential to accelerate AI by speeding up data processing and enabling more complex models. Google’s Willow chip is a significant step forward, showing that quantum hardware can enhance machine learning tasks.
However, quantum AI is still facing challenges like noise, error rates and qubit instability. In short, while progress continues, much work is still needed to make quantum AI a reality.
Final Thoughts
As we look ahead, the excitement around quantum computing is undeniable. The progress made so far in areas like cryptography, AI, and industry optimization demonstrates the potential of this emerging technology.
But let’s not forget the hurdles – atomic loss, error correction, qubit instability…etc. remain critical challenges. How long it will take to fully overcome them is uncertain; it could be two years, or it could be ten. What’s important is that quantum computing is actively evolving.
It’s worth noting that the companies highlighted in this article represent just a small portion of the effort – many other players in the field are working hard to solve these challenges.
And as quantum computing continues to mature, it will undoubtedly reshape industries in ways we can only begin to imagine. But for now, the journey is ongoing, and the destination is still a work in progress.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is post-quantum cryptography?
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is a set of encryption algorithms designed to remain secure against attacks from both classical and quantum computers, using mathematical problems like lattice-based cryptography that quantum algorithms cannot efficiently solve. NIST standardized three PQC algorithms in August 2024: CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, and SPHINCS+.
What is the “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” threat?
Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) is a cybersecurity attack where adversaries collect encrypted data today and store it until quantum computers become powerful enough to decrypt it retroactively. This threat particularly endangers sensitive data requiring decades-long confidentiality, such as medical records, financial transactions, and government communications.
When will quantum computers be able to break current encryption?
Expert estimates vary widely, with predictions ranging from 2026 to 2040 or beyond for cryptographically relevant quantum computers capable of breaking RSA-2048 or ECC-256 encryption. Current quantum systems have fewer than 1,000 physical qubits with high error rates, while breaking modern encryption would require approximately 4,000-20,000 logical qubits with error correction.
Which industries are most vulnerable to quantum computing threats?
Healthcare, finance, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and government sectors face the highest quantum computing risks because they store sensitive data requiring decades-long confidentiality protection. These industries are prioritizing post-quantum cryptography adoption to protect medical records, financial histories, classified communications, and intellectual property from future quantum decryption.
Are cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin vulnerable to quantum computers?
Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies use Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) for transaction security, which a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically break to expose private keys. However, current quantum systems remain far below the estimated 4,000 logical qubits needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, and quantum-resistant cryptocurrencies are already in development.
What are the three NIST-approved post-quantum algorithms?
NIST finalized three post-quantum cryptographic algorithms in August 2024: CRYSTALS-Kyber for encryption and key establishment, CRYSTALS-Dilithium for digital signatures, and SPHINCS+ as a backup signature algorithm. These algorithms use lattice-based and hash-based cryptography that remains secure against quantum attacks.
How are banks preparing for quantum computing threats?
Banks are implementing post-quantum cryptography through hardware security module (HSM) upgrades, quantum-ready mainframe systems, and pilot programs testing PQC in production environments. Major vendors like Thales, IBM, and PQShield are delivering quantum-resistant solutions designed for the 15-20 year lifecycles typical of banking hardware.
Can quantum computers break VPN encryption?
Current VPN encryption using RSA or ECC key exchange would be vulnerable to sufficiently powerful quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm. Leading network providers including Cloudflare, Akamai, and Google Chrome are already implementing hybrid post-quantum key exchange protocols that combine classical and quantum-resistant encryption methods.
What industries will benefit from quantum computing optimization?
Logistics, finance, pharmaceuticals, materials science, and artificial intelligence are expected to benefit most from quantum computing’s optimization capabilities. Potential applications include supply chain route optimization, portfolio risk modeling, molecular simulation for drug discovery, and accelerated machine learning—though commercially viable quantum applications remain 5-10 years away.
Is quantum computing technology ready for practical use today?
Quantum computing remains in early development stages with significant technical challenges including atomic loss, error correction, and qubit instability limiting practical applications. While pilot programs demonstrate potential in specific use cases like traffic optimization and financial modeling, widespread commercial quantum computing deployment likely requires 5-10 more years of hardware and algorithm development.
