Insider Brief
- The 2025 Stanford Emerging Technology Review finds that quantum computing continues to advance but remains limited by fragile hardware, scaling challenges, and a lack of commercial readiness.
- While quantum simulation and sensing are showing early promise, most quantum computers today cannot outperform classical systems and are restricted to experimental use.
- The report urges a shift toward co-designed systems, post-quantum cryptography migration, and near-term use cases as the industry navigates the current NISQ-era constraints.
Quantum computing is moving forward, but it timelines on its commercially transformative are uncertain, according to the 2025 Stanford Emerging Technology Review. While research groups are making progress on quantum hardware and error correction, the field continues to grapple with reliability issues, scaling challenges and narrow application windows.
The Stanford report outlines an ecosystem still operating in the “Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum” (NISQ) era, which is a phase where machines with a small number of unstable qubits are useful mainly for experimentation. Though companies continue to attract funding and headlines, the analysts caution that most quantum computers today cannot outperform classical systems in real-world settings.
For now, the promise of exponential speedups remains more theoretical than practical, the analysts write.
They report: “Quantum computing remains a field of intense research and development, with significant progress made in both the number and quality of quantum bits, or qubits. Recent innovations in error correction and the potential for practical quantum computing could revolutionize specific applications, although commercial viability remains years away.”
Fragile Systems, Analog Results
The analysts explain quantum computing in the report. Quantum computers operate under a very different model than classical machines. Instead of processing digital bits that are either 0 or 1, quantum bits — or qubits — can exist in multiple probabilistic states through superposition. Entanglement, another quantum mechanical process, allows them to influence each other in complex ways, enabling calculations that would overwhelm classical systems. But these properties also make qubits extraordinarily fragile. Heat, light, vibration, and electromagnetic noise can all destroy quantum coherence.
According to the Stanford report, even the most advanced systems struggle to maintain stable quantum states long enough to complete useful calculations. Operations are probabilistic, not deterministic. Output must be sampled multiple times to identify the most likely answer, introducing overhead that limits efficiency. This analog character makes quantum programming challenging and constrains its usefulness in everyday computation.
Hardware platforms remain fragmented. Superconducting qubits and trapped-ion systems dominate the current landscape, but other approaches — including photonics, topological qubits and quantum dots — are also under active investigation. Each technology comes with tradeoffs around speed, noise, stability and ease of fabrication.
No architecture has yet demonstrated a clear path to thousands of fault-tolerant qubits, the threshold analysts say is needed for broadly useful quantum computing.
Post-Classical Use Cases Still Limited
Despite recent attention, the Stanford report indicates that quantum computers will not replace classical systems. Instead, they will augment them for specific high-value tasks. Among the most promising areas is quantum simulation — especially for chemistry and materials science. Quantum systems are well suited to model the complex interactions of atoms and molecules, which are difficult to simulate accurately on classical computers. This could lead to faster discovery of new drugs, catalysts, and battery materials.
Optimization problems are another area of interest, including logistics, supply chain routing, and financial modeling. But the performance edge of quantum solvers in these fields remains unproven. Many quantum algorithms require more stable qubits than currently available.
Stanford notes that advances in error mitigation and algorithm design will be needed to extract value from these early machines.
Cryptography continues to be a major strategic concern. Quantum computers, in theory, could break widely used encryption systems by solving problems like integer factorization much faster than classical machines. Although such attacks are not yet practical, their future possibility has triggered a global shift toward post-quantum cryptography — new algorithms designed to resist quantum threats. Governments and major tech companies are already beginning the transition, with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalizing post-quantum standards.
Quantum Networking and Sensing Gaining Ground
While general-purpose quantum computing remains out of reach, other branches of quantum technology are maturing faster. Quantum sensing — which uses quantum properties to detect tiny variations in time, gravity, or magnetism — is moving toward practical deployment. These sensors could be used in subterranean imaging, precise navigation without GPS, and detection of hidden materials or structures. Military, energy and climate applications are already under exploration.
Quantum networking is another active frontier. The Stanford report notes progress in developing entanglement-based communication links, which could form the basis for highly secure quantum communications. Quantum repeaters, needed to extend these links over long distances, are still in development, but pilot networks are beginning to emerge. Over time, this could support distributed quantum computing and a global quantum internet.
Actionable Insights for the Quantum Industry
The Stanford report offers a sober but useful roadmap for quantum developers, investors and policymakers. The report offers a breakdown on trends in quantum adoption that are happening right now, as well as the trends that the analysts consider on the horizon.
Industry players are advised to focus on co-design — integrating quantum hardware, control systems, software, and algorithms from the ground up rather than developing them in isolation. Successful systems will depend on noise-aware compilers, efficient qubit calibration, and robust error-handling techniques.
Immediate Trend
NISQ-Era Hardware, Probabilistic Results
Today’s machines operate with high error rates and require extensive repetition to produce trustworthy outcomes. Most platforms remain in the tens-of-qubits range. Algorithms that demonstrate real advantage are tightly limited by these hardware constraints.
Stanford suggests that quantum companies shift short-term focus to developing specialized tools and benchmarking frameworks that align with specific industrial use cases and real-world constraints. Demonstrable near-term utility, even if narrow, will be critical for sustained private investment.
Post-Quantum Cryptography
The threat of quantum-enabled codebreaking is forcing an overhaul of digital infrastructure. The transition to post-quantum cryptography has already begun and will take years to fully implement. Companies that store sensitive data long-term may be vulnerable to “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks.
Stanford advises stakeholders in cybersecurity, finance, and national defense to accelerate migration planning and audit current cryptographic inventories to assess exposure.
Over the Horizon
Quantum Simulation for Science and Industry
Quantum computers may eventually transform the modeling of complex molecules and materials. These applications are especially promising in pharmaceuticals, energy, and climate solutions. In some early proof-of-concept studies, quantum systems have modeled small molecules that are intractable for classical methods.
Industry research teams should prioritize collaborations with quantum hardware developers to co-develop algorithms and datasets tailored for near-term simulation experiments.
Quantum Sensors and Positioning Systems
Entangled sensors offer the ability to detect subtle anomalies that classical instruments miss. These systems may eventually support GPS-independent navigation, underground mapping, and precise environmental monitoring.
The report notes that the defense sector and large infrastructure players should fund pilot demonstrations of quantum sensor arrays, especially in environments where classical positioning systems are limited.
Quantum Networking and Secure Communications
The building blocks of a future quantum internet are being tested in research labs. Quantum key distribution (QKD) and entanglement distribution protocols have been demonstrated over metropolitan-scale fiber networks and, in some cases, via satellite.
Telecom operators, cloud providers, and defense agencies should evaluate early integration of QKD and secure quantum links, especially for critical communication infrastructure.
The Governance Gap in Quantum
As with space and AI, Stanford warns that governance of quantum technologies is lagging behind technical development. There are currently no global rules or verification mechanisms to prevent the misuse of quantum capabilities — whether to break encryption, build destabilizing cyber weapons, or dominate critical infrastructure.
Domestically, regulation remains patchy. While export controls cover some quantum devices and intellectual property, the policy framework is fragmented across agencies. Stanford argues that governments must clarify oversight, incentivize standards development, and strengthen transparency requirements — particularly for systems used in finance, security, and communications.
Overall Message: A Long Road, but a Clearer Path
Quantum technology is not on the brink of mass adoption. Most companies, labs, and governments still operate on a ten-year horizon for meaningful deployment. But the Stanford Emerging Technology Review makes clear that the foundations are being laid. Coherent roadmaps, clear benchmarks, and realistic expectations will separate durable efforts from speculative hype.
The physics is sound, the use cases are compelling, and the stakes — in security, science, and industry — are significant. But patience, precision, and disciplined collaboration will be required to bring quantum technologies out of the lab and into the world.
The full report also contains insights into artificial intelligence, semiconductor, space and other emerging technologies. Full review is highly recommended, you can find it available for download here.
The report features experts, including co-chairs Condoleezza Rice, John B. Taylor, Jennifer Widom and Amy Zegart, along with director and editor-in-chief Herbert S. Lin and managing editor Martin Giles.
