The quantum community has a reason to celebrate some important milestones in 2023, while looking ahead with a mix of optimism and even a little concern.
Here’s a collection of reflections of 2023 and predictions for 2024 contributed by some of the ecosystem’s best known experts and thought leaders, including officials from Quantinuum, Terra Quantum, IQM Computers, Keysight and D-Wave.
Quantinuum, Terra Quantum And Multiverse Computing
IQM Quantum Computers
“In the upcoming year, I anticipate quantum computing will continue to present a growing concern for companies. But more importantly, next year businesses must evaluate their data and determine what information is of real value, to start transitioning into post-quantum cryptography as soon as possible.” – Toni Pesonen, Head of IT and Cyber Security at IQM Quantum Computers
“Looking ahead to 2024, it is unlikely that we will see significant breakthroughs in the field of quantum cybersecurity, particularly with regards to code breaking. Nevertheless, the shift towards quantum-safe encryption will require a significant investment of time and resources, and it is essential to ensure the security of sensitive data in the long term. This presents an opportunity for organisations and institutions to focus on educating themselves and adapting their encryption systems to become quantum safe. In terms of other security applications, there may be more use cases identified for fraud detection using quantum computing.
“While progress in quantum cybersecurity may be slow, there are other areas where we are closer to achieving quantum advantage. One such area is machine learning, where quantum computing can provide significant speedups for complex problems. We are already seeing this being tested in projects such as process optimisation in production. Another area where quantum computing is showing promise is in the simulation of chemical problems. This is already being applied in projects such as battery development.
“As we move into 2024, we can expect to see more proof-of-concept use cases being published and a wider adoption of quantum computing in various industries. This will require collaboration between end-users and quantum experts to identify use cases and develop solutions that leverage the unique capabilities of quantum computing. Overall, while progress in these areas takes time, the potential benefits of quantum computing make it an exciting and promising field to watch in the coming years.” — Dr. Jan Goetz, Cofounder and CEO at IQM
Keysight
Quantum technology allows us to harness the fundamental laws of quantum mechanics to solve problems that are extremely challenging or impossible today. With quantum technology, complex simulations and computations, secure communication, and more powerful imaging and sensor techniques will be possible.
Navigating the Quantum Landscape: Bridging the Talent Gap
Quantum technologies are expanding beyond the academic realm and into startups, high-tech companies, and the military. This will give rise to more quantum hubs, incubators, and local and national ecosystems all trying to build a workforce able to seize the quantum opportunity. Solving the talent gap is critical to realizing the potential of quantum in the coming years and decades.
From Labs to Lecture Halls: The Quantum Leap in Education
The shortage of quantum talent will create an opportunity for higher education to offer new programs to help train the future quantum workforce. By 2030, quantum courses will be commonplace. These programs will involve industry partners so students can access the latest quantum control and readout technologies and obtain the right technical skills. In addition, business schools will offer quantum courses to prepare the next generation of entrepreneurs to enter into the quantum ecosystem.
Democratizing Quantum: The Emergence of Quantum-as-a-Service (QaaS)
Due to the significant cost and resource burden in developing quantum labs, this will give rise to more quantum-as-a-service (QaaS) providers. Remote cloud access to quantum processors, test beds for device characterization, and foundries that offer fabrication services are examples of services that are available which in turn will help attract startups into the quantum ecosystem. QaaS providers, over time, will help standardize device operation, characterization, and fabrication, which will enable benchmarking of quantum processors and qubit-adjacent enabling technologies.
Inclusive Innovation: Quantum Community Champions Gender Equality
Quantum has the potential to become the first technology sector to achieve gender equality. This will result from an ongoing concerted effort to attract women and ensure a diverse workforce is the norm rather than the exception.
Knowledge Gaps Will Throttle the Progress of Quantum
Quantum research and development will continue to attract investment from governments, academia, and industry however, knowledge gaps and the availability of state-of-the-art technology will limit the pace of progress. For example, if the capability to produce high-quality quantum processor units (QPUs) is missing due to the lack of an advanced and dedicated cleanroom facility, this will slow progress.
— Dr. Philip Krantz, Quantum Engineering Solutions at Keysight
EDA Turns to AI: From Complexity to Clarity
The application of AI and ML techniques in EDA is still in the early adopter phase, with design engineers exploring use cases to simplify complex problems. The intelligence is particularly valuable in model development and validation for simulation, where it assists in processing large volumes of data. In 2024, organizations will increasingly adopt both technologies for device modeling of silicon and III-V semiconductor process technologies, as well as system modeling for forthcoming standards such as 6G, where research is well underway.
Next-Gen Quantum Design: Optimizing System Performance
Quantum computing is advancing at a rapid pace and is transitioning from predominantly free research tools to commercial products and workflows in quantum design. Next-generation quantum design will require more integrated simulation workflows that provide developers with fast and accurate capabilities to optimize system performance.
— Niels Faché, VP & GM, Keysight EDA at Keysight
D-Wave
Alan Baratz, President and CEO of D-Wave
Quantum Supremacy
Prediction: The industry will achieve a proven, defensible quantum supremacy result in 2024. Ongoing scientific and technical advancements indicate that we are far along the path to achieving quantum supremacy. 2024 will be the year where quantum definitively outperforms classical, full stop. There will be clear evidence of quantum’s ability to solve a complex computational problem previously unsolvable by classical computing, and quantum will solve it faster, better and with less power consumption. The breakthrough we’ve all been pursuing is coming.
Rapid Governmental Adoption of Quantum
Prediction: The US government’s usage of annealing quantum computing will increase given the anticipated passing of legislation including the National Quantum Initiative and the National Defense Authorization Act. 2024 will see a rapid uptick in quantum sandbox and test bed programs — with directives to use all types of quantum technology, including annealing, hybrid and gate model. These programs will focus on near-term application development to solve real-world public sector problems, from public transportation vehicle routing to electric grid resilience.
Prediction: The global quantum race will continue to heat up, as the U.S. and its allies aggressively push for near-term application development. While the U.S. is now starting to accelerate near-term applications, other governments like Australia, Japan, the U.K., and the E.U. have been making expedited moves to bring quantum in to solve public sector challenges. This effort will greatly expand in 2024. Top public sector areas of focus will likely be sustainability, transportation and logistics, supply chain, and health care.
Business Impact and the Future of Work
Prediction: Quantum computing will show proven value and utility in daily business operations through in-production applications. As we close 2023, companies are beginning to go into production with quantum-hybrid applications, so it’s no stretch of the imagination to see corporations using quantum solutions daily for ubiquitous business challenges such as employee scheduling, vehicle routing, and supply chain optimization. In time, it will become a part of every modern IT infrastructure, starting with the integration of annealing quantum computing.
Prediction: With economists projecting a shallow recession in 2024, organizations will seek new technologies, such as quantum computing, to navigate adversity and bolster business resilience. Quantum technologies can accelerate problem solving and decision making for a wide range of common organizational processes, such as supply chain management, manufacturing efficiency, logistical planning, and employee scheduling. Amidst a challenging economic environment, quantum’s ability to fuel operational efficiencies is critical.
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