Quantum economic impact studies for governments and agencies
A quantum economic impact study estimates the jobs, investment and output that a quantum program, industry or sector could create, using stated assumptions and a model suited to the question. The Quantum Insider (TQI) builds these studies from platform data on companies, funding and patents and delivers results as inputs to strategy and budget decisions.
Updated Q4 2026
Questions an impact study answers
Published totals differ by orders of magnitude because each study measures something different. A commissioned study fixes the question first.
What a program or sector could create
Jobs, investment and growth under stated scenarios, so a budget can be tested against its likely return.
Which use cases carry the value
Which applications account for most of an estimated gain, so effort goes where the evidence is strongest.
How the estimate was built
The assumptions behind each figure, set out so a reviewer can change them and see the effect.
What to compare it with
How the result sits against published studies of other regions and sectors.
Who commissions an impact study
The buyers need a number they can defend to a treasury, a board or a legislature.
Government departments and agencies
Departments assessing a sector, such as the UK Department for Transport, which published a study prepared by Resonance.
Regional programs
State and regional bodies sizing the likely benefit of an investment in a quantum ecosystem.
Industry bodies
Consortia that need evidence on their industry, such as QED-C, for which TQI delivered global industry benchmarking.
What the study delivers
The consulting page defines the output: economic impact studies model jobs, investment and growth scenarios, delivered as inputs to strategy and budget decisions. The method follows the question, and this page compares four methods used in published studies.
| Deliverable | What it contains |
|---|---|
| Scenario model | Jobs, investment and growth under stated scenarios |
| Assumptions set out | Each figure tied to the assumption that produces it, as in the UK Department for Transport report |
| Report for decision makers | Results written as inputs to strategy and budget decisions |
How a quantum economic impact study is measured
A quantum economic impact study sums three effects. The direct effect is spending on wages, goods and services by the organization or program studied. The indirect effect is the business-to-business spending that triggers. The induced effect is household spending out of the wages that direct and indirect activity pay. The ratio of total to direct output is the multiplier, and it is specific to an industry and a place. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes regional multipliers through its Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II).
McKinsey’s Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 separates the market size of quantum technology (infrastructure, hardware, software and services) from the value at stake, the value quantum creates for other industries such as finance, pharmaceuticals and energy. The two answer different questions. Published studies use four methods.
1. Input-output modeling of a defined program
The University of Tennessee at Chattanooga study of the utility EPB, “From Gig City to Quantum City”, uses IMPLAN, a county-level input-output model, to trace spending through the local economy. Its appendix distinguishes an impact analysis, which values new investment, from a contribution analysis, which values an existing industry and is more conservative. Suits: a region that wants jobs and output linked to a specific investment. Limit: for an industry that does not yet exist, the spending plan is itself a forecast.
2. Top-down share of a global market
CSIRO’s October 2022 update, “Growing Australia’s Quantum Technology Industry”, was commissioned by the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources. It applies a share for quantum technology in each of three global markets (4, 3 and 2 percent) and an assumed 5 percent Australian share of the global opportunity. Jobs are revenue divided by revenue per employee. Suits: a national first estimate from published market data. Limit: the national share is an assumption.
3. Use-case triangulation for one sector
The UK Department for Transport’s report, prepared by Resonance, builds a value-creation estimate of about £7 billion from selected use cases, each with a stated assumption such as a 2 percent UK share of a published global estimate. Suits: a sector or agency that needs to know which use cases matter. Limit: illustrative, not a forecast.
4. Global value at stake from use-case analysis
McKinsey assessed use cases across key quantum computing segments in conservative and optimistic scenarios and reports $1.3 trillion to $2.7 trillion of value at stake by 2035. It states that the estimates are approximate, not definitive projections, and that they overlap with the impact of generative AI. Suits: sizing a global opportunity. Limit: no region can claim a share without a further assumption.
What published quantum economic impact studies found
The table uses each study’s own words for what it counts. It does not rank the studies: the figures answer different questions and cannot be added.
| Study and date | Scope and horizon | Headline figure | What it counts | Stated caveat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor, April 2026 | Global, to 2035 | $1.3 trillion to $2.7 trillion value at stake from quantum computing | Revenue and cost savings in other industries | Approximate, not definitive projections; overlaps with generative AI |
| CSIRO for the Australian government, October 2022 | Australia, 2030 to 2045 | A$2.2 billion revenue and 8,700 jobs in 2030; A$5.9 billion and 19,400 jobs in 2045 | Revenue of the quantum technology industry; jobs derived from revenue per employee | One conservative scenario; Australian share assumed at 5 percent |
| Department for Transport, published November 2024 | UK transport, 2030 to 2035 | At least £4 billion to £8 billion net value impact | Value created for transport from selected use cases | Assumption-based; impacts not yet proven at commercial scale |
| UK government announcement, March 17, 2026 | UK economy, two decades | Productivity up 7 percent, more than 100,000 jobs, £212 billion of impact | Productivity and jobs from an external estimate | Presented as “estimates show”; basis is a linked outside estimate |
| University of Tennessee at Chattanooga with EPB, November 2025 | Chattanooga region, 2026 to 2035 | $688 million to $1.11 billion from the quantum initiative; $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion in total with broadband and smart grid | Output and jobs from an input-output model, plus analytical estimates | Forecast ranges; study co-authored by an EPB employee |
| Chicago Quantum Exchange projections, 2024 | Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana, to 2035 | About $50 million today to nearly $80 billion in 2035 | Economic impact projection prepared for the exchange | “Could reach” language; assumes continued government investment |
Why the numbers differ
- Different questions. McKinsey counts benefits to other industries, the Chattanooga study counts local output and jobs, and the CSIRO model counts the revenue of a national quantum industry.
- Different geographies, horizons and units. A city to 2035, a country to 2045 and the world to 2035 are not comparable, and output, value added, revenue and productivity gain are separate measures.
- Targets versus models. Elevate Quantum’s goals of over $2 billion in private capital and over 10,000 jobs by 2030 are milestones set at award, not modeled impacts (CU Boulder, July 2024). See the regional ecosystem guide.
- Who authored and who paid. The Chattanooga study has an author from the utility it studies, and the Chicago projections were prepared for the exchange that publishes them. That does not make them wrong, but a reader should know it.
The Chattanooga paper dates to November 12, 2025, and the Chicago Quantum Exchange page gives its figures for the three-state region. The Illinois governor’s office separately cited up to $20 billion in economic impact from its quantum park; the scopes differ and should not be added.
Questions to ask of any quantum impact study
- Is the figure market size, value at stake, output, value added, income or jobs?
- What geography and years does it cover, and in what currency and price year?
- Is it a forecast, a scenario or a target? Does it give a range?
- Where do the multipliers or market shares come from, and are they published?
- Does it count gross activity or the net gain over what would have happened anyway?
- Who wrote it and who paid for it?
A published global figure rarely answers a local question. A region may need its own study when it is deciding how much public money to commit and wants jobs and output tied to a specific program, when a ministry needs to know which use cases matter for one sector, or when it needs a national estimate it can update as market data changes. A study is less useful as a substitute for a plan.
How an economic impact study engagement runs
Every TQI engagement follows four stages and opens with a data pull from the TQI Intelligence Platform. For an impact study they run as follows.
Baseline from the platform
We pull the company, funding, patent and research data that sets the starting point for the model.
Expert analysis
Consultants choose the method, build the scenarios and set out the assumptions behind each figure.
Primary validation
Where needed we test assumptions with expert interviews and stakeholder consultations.
Decision-ready delivery
You receive results framed for the budget or strategy decision, with the assumptions visible.
Economic impact studies are multi-month engagements because they involve stakeholder consultation. The team confirms timing when it scopes the work.
Company and client counts as stated on the TQI consulting page, as of Q4 2026.
Published impact work
The UK Department for Transport report is public, and TQI reported the Chattanooga study.
UK Department for Transport
Potential socio-economic impacts of quantum technologies in UK transport, prepared by Resonance and published November 14, 2024. It estimates a net value impact of at least £4 billion to £8 billion by 2030 to 2035, from a value-creation estimate of about £7 billion across selected use cases, and states that the figures rest on many assumptions.
Chattanooga, TQI coverage
TQI reported a University of Tennessee at Chattanooga study that put the quantum benefit to Chattanooga at $688 million to $1.11 billion from 2026 to 2035. The university authors, not TQI, produced the study.
How to measure it
Four methods used in published studies and the questions to ask of any study, set out on this page.
Quantum economic impact studies, answered
What is a quantum economic impact study?
It estimates the output, income and jobs that a quantum program or industry creates, most often with an input-output model that adds direct, indirect and induced effects. Other studies use a top-down share of a global market or an analysis of individual use cases. TQI delivers the results as inputs to strategy and budget decisions.
How do you measure the economic impact of quantum technology?
There is no single method. Published studies use input-output models, top-down shares of a global market, use-case triangulation for one sector, and global value-at-stake analysis. The right choice depends on the question. The methods section above compares them.
Who provides quantum economic impact studies for governments?
TQI Advisory provides them. Economic impact studies are one of its six engagement types, and Resonance prepared the UK Department for Transport report on the potential socio-economic impacts of quantum technologies in UK transport.
What do direct, indirect and induced effects mean?
Direct effects are the spending of the studied organization or program. Indirect effects are the business-to-business spending that follows. Induced effects come from households spending the wages those activities pay. The total is their sum.
How big is the economic impact of quantum computing?
McKinsey’s Quantum Technology Monitor 2026 puts the value at stake from quantum computing at $1.3 trillion to $2.7 trillion by 2035 and describes the estimate as approximate. Regional and national studies give much smaller figures because they cover smaller areas.
Why do quantum impact estimates differ so much?
They count different things (market size, value at stake, local output or jobs), over different regions and years, and use different assumptions. A figure should be compared only with studies that share its definition.
Can a region use a published study instead of commissioning one?
For a first view, a national or global study can set a range. For a funding decision tied to a local program, the multipliers and spending plan need to be local, which usually means a new study.
What did the UK Department for Transport study find?
The report estimates a net value impact for UK transport of at least £4 billion to £8 billion by 2030 to 2035, built from a value-creation estimate of about £7 billion from selected use cases. It states that any attempt to quantify quantum impacts rests on many assumptions and that published impacts are yet to be proven at commercial scale.
How long does an economic impact study take?
Economic impact studies are multi-month engagements because they involve stakeholder consultation. Starting from a live dataset shortens the research phase, since the company, funding, patent and program baseline already exists.
What does an economic impact study cost?
Pricing is scoped individually. Scope, timeline and the mix of data, modeling and consultation set the fee, and there is no rate card. Tell us the decision in front of you and the team will come back with a scoped proposal and options.
Sources
- The Quantum Insider, Quantum Computing Consulting & Advisory Services. Engagement types, four stages, client and company counts, and the six named engagements. As of Q4 2026.
- UK Department for Transport, Potential socio-economic impacts of quantum technologies in UK transport, published November 14, 2024.
- The Quantum Insider, EPB Projects $1 Billion in Quantum Technology Benefits Over Next Decade, November 21, 2025.
- McKinsey & Company, Quantum Technology Monitor 2026: A commercial tipping point, April 2026.
- CSIRO Futures for the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Growing Australia’s Quantum Technology Industry: Updated economic modelling, October 2022.
- GOV.UK, UK government press release on quantum support, March 17, 2026.
- Bento J. Lobo with William Plank, From Gig City to Quantum City: The Value of Fiber Optic Infrastructure in Hamilton County, TN 2011-2035, November 12, 2025.
- Chicago Quantum Exchange, Economic impact projections, 2024 analysis.
- Office of the Governor of Illinois, Gov. Pritzker announces location and anchor tenant of new quantum park, July 25, 2024.
- CU Boulder Today, CU Boulder, Elevate Quantum partners ready $127M regional quantum boost, July 2, 2024.
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II).
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