How big is the quantum computing market?
Quantum computing vendors earned about $1.8 billion in 2025, measured as revenue from hardware, cloud access, software, and services. The Quantum Insider's base case reaches $5.4 billion by 2030 and $15.2 billion by 2035, a 24 percent compound annual growth rate. Economic-impact figures are far larger because they measure value to users, not vendor sales. As of Q3 2026.
Vendor revenue in 2025
Quantum computing vendors earned about $1.79 billion in 2025. The figure counts what quantum companies were paid: systems sold or leased, cloud access, quantum software, and quantum-specific services. It excludes the value customers gain from using the technology, which is a separate and much larger number.
The Quantum Insider (TQI) builds the estimate from the bottom up. Public companies report revenue directly. Private companies are estimated from disclosed deals in TQI's quantum computing sales data, from capacity and hiring signals, and from analyst interviews. The result is then tested against 12 published estimates from research firms, consultancies, and banks.
The 2030 and 2035 outlook
The base case reaches $5.41 billion in 2030 and $15.2 billion in 2035, a compound annual growth rate of 24 percent between 2025 and 2030. The bear case ends 2030 at $3.2 billion, the bull case at $9.5 billion. That spread reflects one dominant uncertainty: when error correction makes fault-tolerant machines commercially useful.
How the market splits by segment
| Segment | 2025 | 2028 | 2030 | 2035 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardware | $0.93B | $2.03B | $2.57B | $5.5B | 22% |
| Cloud access | $0.25B | $1.01B | $1.81B | $6.2B | 50% |
| Services | $0.61B | $1.01B | $1.03B | $3.5B | 11% |
| Total | $1.79B | $4.05B | $5.41B | $15.2B | 24% |
Hardware still dominates, but its share falls from 52 percent to 48 percent by 2030. Cloud access is the growth story, rising from 14 percent of the market to 33 percent as buyers rent capacity rather than install it. Services grow slowly and shrink as a share, because the integration work that dominates an early market does not scale with revenue.
Where the revenue is earned
The Americas take 59 percent of 2030 vendor revenue, EMEA 32 percent, and APAC 9 percent.
This is where vendors book revenue, not where governments spend. Public quantum funding is spread far more evenly, and Europe and Asia-Pacific each hold more confirmed government money than the Americas.
Vendor revenue is not economic impact
The most common mistake in quantum market sizing is comparing figures that measure different things. Vendor revenue reaches $5.41 billion by 2030. Economic impact, which adds supply chain and employment effects, reaches $201 billion cumulatively between 2025 and 2030. End-use value, which measures what customers gain, runs to hundreds of billions by 2040 in the published consultancy estimates.
Quantum vendors capture between 2 and 5 percent of the total value the technology creates. If you sell quantum products, use vendor revenue. If you are building a case for adopting them, use end-use value. Never add the two.
Frequently asked
Sales of quantum systems, cloud access fees, quantum software licenses, and quantum-specific services earned by quantum companies. It excludes the value customers gain from using them.
Cloud access. QCaaS grows at about 50 percent a year in the base case, from $0.25 billion in 2025 to $1.81 billion in 2030, as buyers rent rather than install.
The base case sits inside the range of 12 published estimates. The bear case is $3.2 billion and the bull case $9.5 billion, reflecting uncertainty about fault-tolerant timelines.
Get the Quantum Market Sizing Dataset
Enter your work email and an analyst replies within one business day with the sample, the invoice, or an answer.